Spain
1 - 2
France

Oyarzabal (64')
Laporte (86')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Benzema (66'), Mbappe (80')
Pogba (46'), Kounde (55'), Mbappe (90')

Build‑up

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Nations League clash between Spain and France, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how France could line up for Sunday's UEFA Nations League final with Spain.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Spain had a probability of 36.67% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a France win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.38%) and 0-2 (5.73%). The likeliest Spain win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for France in this match.

Result
Spain	Draw	France
36.67%	24.08%	39.25%

Both teams to score 61.13%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

58.71%

41.29%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

36.32%

63.68%

Spain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.54%

22.46%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44%

56%

France Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.83%

21.16%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.97%

54.03%

Score Analysis

Spain 36.67%

France 39.25%

Draw 24.07%

Spain	Draw	France
2-1 @ 8.23% 1-0 @ 7.1% 2-0 @ 5.3% 3-1 @ 4.1% 3-2 @ 3.18% 3-0 @ 2.64% 4-1 @ 1.53% 4-2 @ 1.19% 4-0 @ 0.99% Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.67%	1-1 @ 11.02% 2-2 @ 6.39% 0-0 @ 4.75% 3-3 @ 1.65% Other @ 0.26% Total : 24.07%	1-2 @ 8.56% 0-1 @ 7.38% 0-2 @ 5.73% 1-3 @ 4.43% 2-3 @ 3.31% 0-3 @ 2.97% 1-4 @ 1.72% 2-4 @ 1.28% 0-4 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.72% Total : 39.25%