SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Italy | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Spain | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Albania | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 82.76%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 5.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.85%) and 1-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.52%), while for a Northern Ireland win it was 0-1 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spain | Draw | Northern Ireland |
82.76% ( 0) | 11.64% ( 0.02) | 5.6% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 44.19% ( -0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.68% ( -0.22) | 32.32% ( 0.22) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.06% ( -0.26) | 53.94% ( 0.26) |
| Spain Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.24% ( -0.04) | 5.76% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 77.8% ( -0.12) | 22.19% ( 0.12) |
| Northern Ireland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.88% ( -0.24) | 53.11% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.28% ( -0.15) | 86.72% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spain | Draw | Northern Ireland |
| 2-0 @ 12.46% ( 0.09) 3-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.05)1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 8.46% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 7.89% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 5.35% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 4.83% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.37% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 2.3% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)6-1 @ 1.45% ( -0.02)5-2 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)7-0 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.9% Total : 82.75% | 1-1 @ 5.52% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 2.5% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.56% Total : 11.64% | 0-1 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 1.75% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 5.6% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
