SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for St Johnstone had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.36%). The likeliest St Johnstone win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
28.64% ( 0.03) | 27% ( 0.01) | 44.35% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 48.68% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.83% ( -0.02) | 56.16% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.77% ( -0.02) | 77.22% ( 0.01) |
| St Johnstone Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.07% ( 0.01) | 34.93% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.33% ( 0.01) | 71.67% ( -0.01) |
| Kilmarnock Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.81% ( -0.03) | 25.18% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.09% ( -0.04) | 59.91% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Johnstone | Draw | Kilmarnock |
| 1-0 @ 9.25% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.71% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.35% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.62% Other @ 2.13% Total : 28.64% | 1-1 @ 12.75% 0-0 @ 8.8% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.63% ( -0)Other @ 0.82% Total : 26.99% | 0-1 @ 12.12% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.8% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.36% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.39% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 44.34% |
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