Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 50.21%. A win for Schalke 04 had a probability of 25.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Schalke 04 win was 0-1 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.43%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.
-0.01) 
0.03) 
