Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Schalke 04 win with a probability of 51.52%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 26.74% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Schalke 04 win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.81%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Schalke 04 would win this match.
