Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Johnstone win with a probability of 73.21%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Stenhousemuir had a probability of 10.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Johnstone win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.63%) and 0-3 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Stenhousemuir win it was 1-0 (3.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.