Lens have won five in a row against Toulouse, including in the reverse fixture back in September when Guilavogui scored a late winner, and they are now looking more like the side that gatecrashed the top three last season.
Toulouse's confidence may be extremely fragile after being the slain giants in the cup last week, and their position in the Ligue 1 table does not lie, as another difficult fixture awaits.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 45.97%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 28.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.18%) and 0-2 (8.18%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
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