The hosts have not fared too well against Lorient at home in the recent past, winning just one of their previous four Ligue 1 games here, but there have been 19 goals in those previous meetings.
Lorient's goal-laden season at both ends may therefore continue in a close encounter which will likely end level, especially considering the visitor's record of just one win in 16 away league games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 50.38%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 25.27% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.69%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (6.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
1.43) 
-1.6) 
