Toulouse appear to have real momentum behind them at the moment following their promotion, while Lorient could be rusty having not competed last weekend.
As such, we can envisage a narrow victory for the hosts, who were impressive in scoring three goals away from home last time out.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 68.89%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for Lorient had a probability of 12.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.69%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a Lorient win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.09) 
