Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 37.68%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 34.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.88%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (11.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
-0.01) 
0) 
