Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 52.43%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 22.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.79%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (7.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.