SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 42.44%. A win for Caen had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.88%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (8.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Metz in this match.
| Result | ||
| Metz | Draw | Caen |
42.44% ( 0.31) | 25.84% ( 0.12) | 31.71% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 53.72% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.62% ( -0.66) | 50.37% ( 0.66) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.68% ( -0.59) | 72.31% ( 0.59) |
| Metz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.43% ( -0.14) | 23.57% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.37% ( -0.2) | 57.63% ( 0.2) |
| Caen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.29% ( -0.62) | 29.71% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.23% ( -0.76) | 65.77% ( 0.76) |
| Score Analysis |
| Metz | Draw | Caen |
| 1-0 @ 10.12% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 8.88% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 7.31% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 4.28% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.52% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.94% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.98% Total : 42.44% | 1-1 @ 12.28% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 7% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.84% | 0-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 5.16% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 3.02% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.18% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.09% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.41% Total : 31.72% |
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