Botafogo had gone four road games without defeat (three wins) before falling short at Criciuma on June 22, and Jorge's troops should back themselves to return to winning ways on their travels against a struggling opponent that have conceded 13 home goals this term — more than any top-flight club.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 40.54%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 32.5% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (7.33%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (9.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.24) 
-0.38) 
