Recent encounters between these clubs in all competitions have gone Athletico Paranaense's way, with Botafogo claiming one win in the Copa do Brasil round of 16 second leg — a tie Athletico ultimately claimed on penalties.
While their last league victory in this fixture came in July 2022, Fogo's recent form heading into this week's match suggests a tie could be in the offing with little separating both sides.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.78%. A win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Athletico Paranaense win was 0-1 (9.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
0.62) 
-0.66) 
