Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 59.14%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 18.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.82%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
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