Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 61.76%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.22%) and 2-1 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.3%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
-0.7) 
0.43) 
