Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vilaverdense win with a probability of 38.89%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 34.13% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vilaverdense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (9.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.
-0.33) 
0.08) 
