Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 64.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Vilaverdense had a probability of 14.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.37%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a Vilaverdense win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
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