Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 61.16%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Moncarapachense had a probability of 17.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.61%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.16%), while for a Moncarapachense win it was 1-0 (5.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
0.92) 
-1.46) 
