Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Juarez win with a probability of 38.57%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 32.05% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Juarez win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Toluca win was 0-1 (11.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
