Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos Laguna win with a probability of 56.64%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for Toluca had a probability of 19.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos Laguna win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a Toluca win it was 0-1 (6.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Santos Laguna would win this match.
