Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruz Azul win with a probability of 51.32%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 24.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruz Azul win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.
