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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 38
Jun 3, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade Francis-Le Blé
R

Brest
1 - 2
Rennes

Belkebla (36' pen.)
Magnetti (42'), Lees-Melou (45+2'), Lemarechal (90+4')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Bourigeaud (13', 45+4' pen.)
Gouiri (42'), Meling (83'), Bourigeaud (85'), Alemdar (90+4')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Marseille 1-2 Brest
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 2-0 Monaco
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1

We said: Brest 2-2 Rennes

Knowing that three points will guarantee European football for next season, Rennes will likely go all out to secure the win on Saturday, but in-form Brest will not go down without a fight. Given that Brest have won each of their last three matches – and each of their previous five on home soil – we expect the Pirates to frustrate the European chasers. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 47.5%. A win for Brest had a probability of 26.47% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.19%) and 0-2 (8.84%). The likeliest Brest win was 1-0 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rennes would win this match.

Result
BrestDrawRennes
26.47% (-1.313 -1.31) 26.03% (0.183 0.18) 47.5% (1.131 1.13)
Both teams to score 50.04% (-1.52 -1.52)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.31% (-1.509 -1.51)53.69% (1.509 1.51)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.82% (-1.285 -1.29)75.18% (1.285 1.29)
Brest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
64.65% (-1.859 -1.86)35.35% (1.858 1.86)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.89% (-1.984 -1.98)72.11% (1.985 1.99)
Rennes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
77.39% (-0.124 -0.12)22.6% (0.123 0.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
43.78% (-0.18000000000001 -0.18)56.22% (0.18 0.18)
Score Analysis
    Brest 26.47%
    Rennes 47.5%
    Draw 26.02%
BrestDrawRennes
1-0 @ 8.31% (0.072999999999999 0.07)
2-1 @ 6.42% (-0.3 -0.3)
2-0 @ 4.32% (-0.185 -0.19)
3-1 @ 2.23% (-0.225 -0.23)
3-2 @ 1.66% (-0.174 -0.17)
3-0 @ 1.5% (-0.145 -0.15)
Other @ 2.03%
Total : 26.47%
1-1 @ 12.35% (0.06 0.06)
0-0 @ 7.99% (0.462 0.46)
2-2 @ 4.78% (-0.24 -0.24)
Other @ 0.91%
Total : 26.02%
0-1 @ 11.88% (0.65 0.65)
1-2 @ 9.19% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
0-2 @ 8.84% (0.45 0.45)
1-3 @ 4.55% (-0.0089999999999995 -0.01)
0-3 @ 4.38% (0.207 0.21)
2-3 @ 2.37% (-0.128 -0.13)
1-4 @ 1.69% (-0.01 -0.01)
0-4 @ 1.63% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 2.98%
Total : 47.5%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Marseille 1-2 Brest
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 2-1 Clermont
Sunday, May 21 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 1-0 Auxerre
Sunday, May 14 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lorient 2-1 Brest
Sunday, May 7 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Brest 2-0 Nantes
Wednesday, May 3 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-0 Brest
Sunday, April 23 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 2-0 Monaco
Saturday, May 27 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Ajaccio 0-5 Rennes
Sunday, May 21 at 12pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 4-0 Troyes
Sunday, May 14 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Nice 2-1 Rennes
Saturday, May 6 at 4pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Rennes 4-2 Angers
Sunday, April 30 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 1-0 Rennes
Sunday, April 23 at 4.05pm in Ligue 1


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