Despite causing a surprise upset in this fixture last season, Metz will be the underdogs heading to the Parc Olympique Lyonnais and could be in for a difficult challenge against a Lyon side desperate to turn their domestic fortunes around.
The absences of Sarr and Pajot in midfield will likely be felt by the visitors, while the return of Paqueta is a boost for the hosts, who should possess enough quality in their side to secure a routine win on Wednesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 74.35%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 9.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.72%) and 3-0 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (3.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.
