Metz may be coming off a high note which is not the case for Montpellier, but they have been poor at home for a long time and have not beaten La Paillade in Metz in their previous three fixtures against them.
Losing consecutive matches is rare for Montpellier, and we do not expect that trend to continue, given the experience of this squad compared to their opponents on Wednesday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 36.65%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 35.38% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.83%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 0-1 (11.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Montpellier HSC would win this match.
