We said: Metz 1-1 Lorient
When you look at the storylines heading into this match with Metz being so poor at home but Lorient struggling as much on the road, it seems like a draw is the logical result given that neither team have been exceptional in any one department this season, but they usually do just enough to get by once in a while.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
