Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 57.97%. A draw had a probability of 23.6% and a win for Saint-Etienne had a probability of 18.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.26%) and 2-1 (9.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.17%), while for a Saint-Etienne win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.