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Ligue 1 | Gameweek 14
Nov 20, 2021 at 8pm UK
Route de Lorient
M

Rennes
2 - 0
Montpellier

Terrier (8'), Majer (28')
Tait (86')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Savanier (3'), Mollet (6')
Savanier (41')
Rennes will endeavour to keep their hot streak going when they welcome Montpellier HSC to Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 on Saturday. Bruno Genesio's in-form crop thrashed Lyon 4-1 last time out, while the visitors prevailed 1-0 at the home of Nice before the international break.

Match preview

Having recovered from a few early-season wobbles, Rennes have been producing the goods week in week out in both Ligue 1 and the Europa Conference League, although it was the unlikeliest of substitutes who propelled them to a remarkable win over Lyon. After Gaetan Laborde and Hamari Traore put Rennes two goals to the good, Genesio turned to left-back Adrien Truffert to play in a more advanced role, and the 19-year-old had two goals to his name within 10 minutes of coming on the field before Lucas Paqueta's late consolation from the spot. To regard Rennes as title challengers may be slightly far-fetched as Paris Saint-Germain continue to ride off into the sunset, but Les Rouge et Noir have suddenly surged to fifth in the rankings and are only two points adrift of Lens in second spot. Genesio's side have now strung together a 10-game run without defeat in all tournaments and have won seven of their last eight domestically and continentally, with the Rennes attack firing on all cylinders as they bid to return to more revered European competition. The hosts have also won their last four Ligue 1 games on home soil - scoring 13 goals in the process - but Montpellier have started to hit a rich vein of form themselves and will pose a stern test to Les Rouge et Noir this weekend. Mr. Reliable Florent Mollet was the hero of the hour for Montpellier with 80 minutes gone against Christophe Galtier's Nice, as the midfielder bagged his fourth goal of the season with a calm finish to see his side march to their first away win of the season. Having also posted wins and clean sheets against Nantes and second-placed Lens in recent weeks, things finally appear to be looking up for Olivier Dall'Oglio, who will hope to see a more consistent Montpellier than what he has been forced to witness since taking charge. La Paillade now sit just one place and three points Rennes in sixth after winning three of their last four games before the international break, but their opponents' superior goal difference means that any usurping is unlikely to occur this weekend. Montpellier had taken just two points from their first five away games of the season before prevailing at Nice, so that injection of confidence should serve them well here, but Rennes know a thing or two about ending up on the winning side at home. Rennes had amassed a nine-game unbeaten run against Montpellier before losing 2-1 in the most recent fixture back in February, but Les Rouge et Noir have not lost at home to their visitors since the 2014-15 season and have shipped just two goals in their six meetings at Roazhon Park since.
Rennes Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
Rennes form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D
  • W
  • W
Montpellier HSC Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W

Team News

Rennes have seen their squad decimated by suspensions ahead of this game, with Kamaldeen Sulemana, Baptiste Santamaria and Warmed Omari all banned for an accumulation of yellow cards. Loic Bade and Lesley Ugochukwu are therefore in line for swift returns to the starting XI, while Truffert has surely done enough to start on the left flank over Martin Terrier. Jeremy Doku and Jonas Martin are both in with chances of returning to the fold for this encounter, but neither man will be ready to feature from the off. As for Montpellier, Dall'Oglio also has a suspension to work around as Jordan Ferri takes his place on the naughty step, while Maxime Esteve could not link up with France Under-20s during the international break with a thigh issue sustained against Nice. Teji Savanier returns from his own ban at an ideal time to deputise for Ferri, while Nicolas Cozza is likely to slot in at centre-back with Thuler and Pedro Mendes both on the sidelines. Dall'Oglio otherwise has no reason to alter a winning formula, with Elye Wahi earning another start in the final third alongside Valere Germain. Rennes possible starting lineup: Gomis; Traore, Bade, Aguerd, Meling; Majer, Ugochukwu, Tait; Bourigeaud, Laborde, Truffert Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup: Omlin; Sambia, Sakho, Cozza, Ristic; Mollet, Savanier, Chotard, Mavididi; Wahi; Germain

We said: Rennes 2-1 Montpellier HSC

The trio of suspended stars will be a blow to Rennes' hopes of another dominant success, but the in-form hosts have been unplayable in front of their own fans of late and should get the job done here. Montpellier will be out to prove that their win at Nice was no fluke, although the absence of three centre-backs could ultimately prove costly.
Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rennes win with a probability of 68.86%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 11.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rennes win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.13%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Rennes in this match.

Result
RennesDrawMontpellier HSC
68.86%19.26%11.87%
Both teams to score 45.12%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.14%46.86%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.88%69.12%
Rennes Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.49%12.51%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61.48%38.52%
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
51.57%48.43%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
16.46%83.54%
Score Analysis
    Rennes 68.85%
    Montpellier HSC 11.87%
    Draw 19.27%
RennesDrawMontpellier HSC
2-0 @ 13.08%
1-0 @ 12.59%
2-1 @ 9.49%
3-0 @ 9.07%
3-1 @ 6.58%
4-0 @ 4.71%
4-1 @ 3.42%
3-2 @ 2.38%
5-0 @ 1.96%
5-1 @ 1.42%
4-2 @ 1.24%
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 68.85%
1-1 @ 9.13%
0-0 @ 6.06%
2-2 @ 3.44%
Other @ 0.63%
Total : 19.27%
0-1 @ 4.39%
1-2 @ 3.31%
0-2 @ 1.59%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 11.87%

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