Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Amiens win with a probability of 41.64%. A win for Pau had a probability of 29.55% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Amiens win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Pau win was 0-1 (10.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
0.15) 
-0.12) 
