Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 53.93%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Bastia had a probability of 21.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.18%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.65%), while for a Bastia win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
-0.76) 
0.27) 
