Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Troyes win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 33.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Troyes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.56%) and 2-0 (6.95%). The likeliest Bastia win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Troyes would win this match.
-0.16) 
0.03) 
