Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bordeaux win with a probability of 43.18%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 29.03% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bordeaux win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (9.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.
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