Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 50.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Martigues had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Martigues win it was 0-1 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Metz would win this match.
-0.33) 
0.13) 
