Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metz win with a probability of 37.58%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 35.3% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metz win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (6.69%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (10.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.6) 
0.28) 
