Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pau win with a probability of 37.79%. A win for Caen had a probability of 34.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pau win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.98%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Pau in this match.