Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bastia win with a probability of 44.2%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 27.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bastia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.92%) and 2-1 (8.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.08%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bastia in this match.
-0.11) 
0.14) 
