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MLS Playoffs | MLS Cup Round One
Nov 3, 2024 at 11.30pm UK
BBVA Compass Stadium
SS

Houston
1 - 1
Seattle

Seattle win 7-6 on penalties
Roldan (90+3' og.)
Escobar (14'), Herrera (65'), Olsen (67'), Artur (79'), Dorsey (85')
Herrera (66')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Roldan (87')
Tolo (85')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Seattle 0-0 Houston (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, October 29 at 12.50am in MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Seattle 0-0 Houston (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, October 29 at 12.50am in MLS Playoffs

We said: Houston Dynamo 1-0 Seattle Sounders

Given both teams' tight defensive records, the two strongest in the Western Conference this term, and the tight nature of the first fixture on Tuesday, we anticipate another close contest at the weekend which could be settled by a single goal. Needing a victory to keep their hopes alive, we back Houston Dynamo to make home advantage count and take the tie to a decider with a first victory over Seattle Sounders since 2021. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Houston Dynamo win with a probability of 45.53%. A win for Seattle Sounders had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Houston Dynamo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.17%). The likeliest Seattle Sounders win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result
Houston DynamoDrawSeattle Sounders
45.53% (-1.398 -1.4) 24.25% (0.050999999999998 0.05) 30.22% (1.344 1.34)
Both teams to score 58.36% (0.682 0.68)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56% (0.52 0.52)43.99% (-0.521 -0.52)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.62% (0.503 0.5)66.38% (-0.505 -0.5)
Houston Dynamo Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.52% (-0.376 -0.38)19.48% (0.373 0.37)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.66% (-0.615 -0.62)51.34% (0.613 0.61)
Seattle Sounders Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.48% (1.178 1.18)27.52% (-1.18 -1.18)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.97% (1.496 1.5)63.03% (-1.498 -1.5)
Score Analysis
    Houston Dynamo 45.53%
    Seattle Sounders 30.22%
    Draw 24.24%
Houston DynamoDrawSeattle Sounders
2-1 @ 9.26% (-0.121 -0.12)
1-0 @ 8.77% (-0.306 -0.31)
2-0 @ 7.17% (-0.339 -0.34)
3-1 @ 5.05% (-0.127 -0.13)
3-0 @ 3.91% (-0.233 -0.23)
3-2 @ 3.26% (0.027 0.03)
4-1 @ 2.06% (-0.077 -0.08)
4-0 @ 1.6% (-0.115 -0.12)
4-2 @ 1.33% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 45.53%
1-1 @ 11.31% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.97% (0.118 0.12)
0-0 @ 5.36% (-0.123 -0.12)
3-3 @ 1.4% (0.057 0.06)
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.24%
1-2 @ 7.3% (0.228 0.23)
0-1 @ 6.92% (0.072 0.07)
0-2 @ 4.46% (0.19 0.19)
1-3 @ 3.14% (0.197 0.2)
2-3 @ 2.57% (0.132 0.13)
0-3 @ 1.92% (0.142 0.14)
1-4 @ 1.01% (0.094 0.09)
Other @ 2.91%
Total : 30.22%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Seattle 0-0 Houston (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, October 29 at 12.50am in MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Houston 2-1 LA Galaxy
Sunday, October 20 at 2am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: St Louis City 3-0 Houston
Sunday, October 6 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Houston 2-1 New England
Thursday, October 3 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Seattle 1-0 Houston
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Austin 0-1 Houston
Sunday, September 22 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Seattle 0-0 Houston (5-4 pen.)
Tuesday, October 29 at 12.50am in MLS Playoffs
Last Game: Seattle 1-1 Portland
Sunday, October 20 at 2am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Colorado 0-1 Seattle
Sunday, October 6 at 2.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Vancouver 0-3 Seattle
Thursday, October 3 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Seattle 1-0 Houston
Sunday, September 29 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Seattle 2-2 Earthquakes
Thursday, September 19 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer


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