Major League Soccer

May 28, 2022 at 11pm UK

Banc of California Stadium

Los Angeles
3 - 2
Earthquakes

Arango (8' pen.), Hollingshead (13'), Rodriguez (47')
Rodriguez (19'), Musovski (76'), Acosta (77'), Crisostomo (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Ebobisse (16', 31')
Espinoza (17')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Major League Soccer clash between Los Angeles FC and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Los Angeles FC 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes

A recent blip in form will worry Los Angeles, and yet another derby defeat will certainly sting, but the benefit of home advantage and their opponents' leaky defence should help them secure maximum points on Saturday. Able to produce goals from a variety of sources, the hosts should score more than once and reaffirm their grip on first place in the standings. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles FC win with a probability of 66.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 14.79%.

The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (4.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles FC would win this match.

Result
Los Angeles FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
66.33% ( -0.63)	18.88% ( 0.41)	14.79% ( 0.22)

Both teams to score 54.89% (

-0.94)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.75% (

-1.49)

38.25% (

1.49)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.47% (

-1.61)

60.53% (

1.61)

Los Angeles FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.28% (

-0.58)

10.72% (

0.58)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.35% (

-1.3)

34.65% (

1.3)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.48% (

-0.65)

38.51% (

0.66)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.74% (

-0.63)

75.26% (

0.63)

Score Analysis

Los Angeles FC 66.32%

San Jose Earthquakes 14.79%

Draw 18.88%

Los Angeles FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
2-0 @ 10.29% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.22% ( 0.43) 3-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.31% ( -0.14) 4-0 @ 4.28% ( -0.11) 4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.13) 4-2 @ 1.95% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 1.91% ( -0.1) 5-1 @ 1.82% ( -0.13) Other @ 4.48% Total : 66.32%	1-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.13% ( 0.29) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.88%	1-2 @ 4.2% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.07) 2-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.96% Total : 14.79%