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Major League Soccer | Gameweek 4
May 2, 2021 at 12.30am UK
Subaru Park
NY

Philadelphia
0 - 2
NY City

FT(HT: 0-1)
Medina (5'), Castellanos (65')
Morales (18'), Ibeagha (25'), Moralez (45+2')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 45.99%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 29.85% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 1-2 (7.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York City FC
45.99%24.16%29.85%
Both teams to score 58.44%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.2%43.79%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.82%66.18%
Philadelphia Union Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.79%19.2%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.11%50.89%
New York City FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.33%27.67%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.78%63.22%
Score Analysis
    Philadelphia Union 45.99%
    New York City FC 29.85%
    Draw 24.15%
Philadelphia UnionDrawNew York City FC
2-1 @ 9.29%
1-0 @ 8.77%
2-0 @ 7.23%
3-1 @ 5.11%
3-0 @ 3.98%
3-2 @ 3.28%
4-1 @ 2.11%
4-0 @ 1.64%
4-2 @ 1.36%
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 45.99%
1-1 @ 11.26%
2-2 @ 5.97%
0-0 @ 5.31%
3-3 @ 1.41%
Other @ 0.2%
Total : 24.15%
1-2 @ 7.24%
0-1 @ 6.83%
0-2 @ 4.39%
1-3 @ 3.1%
2-3 @ 2.56%
0-3 @ 1.88%
1-4 @ 1%
Other @ 2.87%
Total : 29.85%

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