Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 48.39%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 26.56% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.41%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.