Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 40.36%. A win for Notts County had a probability of 33.01% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Notts County win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
