With identical records through three games, can we realistically predict anything other than a draw? We have answered our own question, backing a low-scoring stalemate that will suit neither team.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Halifax Town win with a probability of 41.6%. A win for Dagenham & Redbridge had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Halifax Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.65%) and 0-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Dagenham & Redbridge win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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