Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dungannon Swifts win with a probability of 44.57%. A win for Carrick Rangers had a probability of 32.43% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dungannon Swifts win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Carrick Rangers win was 1-2 (7.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dungannon Swifts would win this match.
