Olympic Games Men's Football | Quarter-Finals
Aug 2, 2024 at 2pm UK
Parc des Princes
We said: Morocco 2-1 USA (after extra time)
Both teams have put in some impressive performances so far, but Morocco can make it through to the semi-finals by the narrowest of margins: the African champions have proven pedigree at Under-23 level and boast a potent front line.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Morocco Under-23s win with a probability of 56.76%. A draw had a probability of 23.4% and a win for USA Under-23s had a probability of 19.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Morocco Under-23s win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.44%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.12%), while for a USA Under-23s win it was 0-1 (6.32%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Morocco Under-23s would win this match.
| Result |
| Morocco Under-23s | Draw | USA Under-23s |
56.76% ( 0.01) | 23.38% ( -0.01) | 19.86% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.31% ( 0.01) |
| 50.51% ( 0.01) | 49.48% ( -0.01) |
| 28.48% ( 0.01) | 71.52% ( -0.01) |
| 82.77% ( 0.01) | 17.22% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.48% ( 0.02) | 47.51% ( -0.02) |
| 60.78% ( -0) | 39.22% ( 0) |
