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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand Under-23s win with a probability of 47.47%. A win for USA Under-23s had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand Under-23s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest USA Under-23s win was 1-2 (7.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand Under-23s | Draw | USA Under-23s |
47.47% ( 8.13) | 23.25% ( -0.28) | 29.28% ( -7.85) |
| Both teams to score 61.29% ( -1.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.12% ( -1.34) | 39.88% ( 1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.76% ( -1.4) | 62.24% ( 1.39) |
| New Zealand Under-23s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.91% ( 2.85) | 17.08% ( -2.86) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.73% ( 4.82) | 47.27% ( -4.82) |
| USA Under-23s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.91% ( -5.1) | 26.08% ( 5.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.86% ( -7.38) | 61.13% ( 7.37) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand Under-23s | Draw | USA Under-23s |
| 2-1 @ 9.35% ( 0.86) 1-0 @ 7.87% ( 1.12)2-0 @ 6.96% ( 1.52)3-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.94)3-0 @ 4.1% ( 1.17)3-2 @ 3.7% ( 0.14)4-1 @ 2.43% ( 0.59)4-0 @ 1.81% ( 0.63)4-2 @ 1.64% ( 0.2)Other @ 4.11% Total : 47.47% | 1-1 @ 10.58% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( -0.35)0-0 @ 4.46% ( 0.27)3-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.2)Other @ 0.27% Total : 23.25% | 1-2 @ 7.11% ( -1.11) 0-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.55)0-2 @ 4.02% ( -1.08)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -1.09)2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.64)0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.85)1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.6)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.4)Other @ 2.34% Total : 29.28% |
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