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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea Under-21s win with a probability of 65.15%. A win for Derby County Under-21s had a probability of 18.49% and a draw had a probability of 16.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea Under-21s win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (7.37%) and 2-3 (5.69%). The likeliest Derby County Under-21s win was 2-1 (4.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 2-2 (5.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chelsea Under-21s would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Chelsea Under-21s |
18.49% ( -0.02) | 16.36% ( -0.01) | 65.15% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 74.21% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 81.75% ( 0.02) | 18.25% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 64.45% ( 0.03) | 35.55% ( -0.03) |
| Derby County Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.63% ( -0) | 21.37% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.66% ( -0) | 54.34% ( 0) |
| Chelsea Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.38% ( 0.01) | 5.62% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 78.21% ( 0.03) | 21.79% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County Under-21s | Draw | Chelsea Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 4.12% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.05% ( -0)3-1 @ 2.12% ( -0)1-0 @ 1.85% ( -0)2-0 @ 1.43% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0)4-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 3.62% Total : 18.49% | 2-2 @ 5.93% ( -0) 1-1 @ 5.33% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 2.93% 0-0 @ 1.2% ( -0)Other @ 0.98% Total : 16.36% | 1-2 @ 7.68% ( -0) 1-3 @ 7.37% 2-3 @ 5.69% 1-4 @ 5.31% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.98% ( -0)0-3 @ 4.78% ( 0)2-4 @ 4.09% ( 0)0-1 @ 3.46% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.44% ( 0)1-5 @ 3.06% ( 0)2-5 @ 2.36% ( 0)3-4 @ 2.11% ( 0)0-5 @ 1.98% ( 0)1-6 @ 1.47% ( 0)3-5 @ 1.21% ( 0)2-6 @ 1.13% ( 0)0-6 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 4.12% Total : 65.15% |
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