While Pacos de Ferreira continue their relegation dogfight, Casa Pia head into Monday looking to get their quest for a place in Europe back on track. The Pacenses showed flashes of brilliance in last Sunday's loss to Boavista and we are backing them to hold out for a share of the spoils against the out-of-sorts hosts
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 48.3%. A draw had a probability of 27.6% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 24.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.91%) and 2-1 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.7%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Casa Pia would win this match.
0.48) 
-0.57) 
