Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.
-0.06) 
0.06) 
