Having the benefit of three competitive games already under their belts, Vitoria can overcome the loss of some important figures to start with a win against promoted opponents.
Chaves - who won only one of their final three friendlies, scoring twice - will therefore have to wait for their first points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 39.69%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 32.17% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Chaves win was 1-0 (10.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Vitoria de Guimaraes in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Vitoria de Guimaraes.
-0.33) 
0.33) 
