Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.26%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.63%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 1-0 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.